Score-Adjusted Fenwick: 2007-08 to 2013-14

Note: An updated version of this post is available here.

In the course of pulling together my look at possession effects in playoff hockey, I ran into a problem that hockey analysts often run into when it comes to Score-Adjusted Fenwick (SAF): despite frequent reference to this measure, the numbers aren’t published on any of the popular advanced-stats websites all the way back to 2007-08. Extra Skater has them back to 2011-12 (though they don’t make them especially easy to find), but if you want earlier numbers, you have to reconstruct them yourself. Since I went to the trouble of pulling together full regular-season estimates for all seven seasons between 2007-08 and 2013-14, I figured I’d do anyone who’s interested a favor and post them here.

saf_table

A quick description on my methods here. I started out with the SAF formula published by Eric Tulsky at Broad Street Hockey a couple years ago. This is:

saf_eqn1

I manipulated the equation to make it a bit easier to work with, as follows:

saf_eqn2

where:

saf_eqn3

By construction, average Tied and All-5v5 Fenwick percentages are always 50%. All of my estimates are season-specific; that is, I didn’t use a single set of weights, but rather calculated average TOIs and league-average Fenwick-For percentages by score situation for each season.

About Nick Emptage

Nicholas Emptage is the blogger behind puckprediction.com. He is an economist by trade and a Sharks fan by choice.
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3 Responses to Score-Adjusted Fenwick: 2007-08 to 2013-14

  1. Extra Skater says:

    Very useful, Nick. Our numbers differ a bit, and it might be because I use teams’ actual TOI in each score situation where it looks like you’re using league average TOI. I prefer using actual because, as Eric mentioned, if a team is up by 2 more than average (e.g.) we should put more weight on their FF%-up2 accordingly.

    • Nick Emptage says:

      Sure. I wasn’t sure which to use, honestly: my interpretation of Eric’s article was that he used average TOIs, and I wanted my numbers to be comparable to others. But I could’ve misinterpreted what he wrote.

  2. Pingback: Updated: Score-Adjusted Fenwick: 2007-08 to 2013-14 | Puck Prediction

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