Note: An updated version of this post is available here.
In the course of pulling together my look at possession effects in playoff hockey, I ran into a problem that hockey analysts often run into when it comes to Score-Adjusted Fenwick (SAF): despite frequent reference to this measure, the numbers aren’t published on any of the popular advanced-stats websites all the way back to 2007-08. Extra Skater has them back to 2011-12 (though they don’t make them especially easy to find), but if you want earlier numbers, you have to reconstruct them yourself. Since I went to the trouble of pulling together full regular-season estimates for all seven seasons between 2007-08 and 2013-14, I figured I’d do anyone who’s interested a favor and post them here.
A quick description on my methods here. I started out with the SAF formula published by Eric Tulsky at Broad Street Hockey a couple years ago. This is:
I manipulated the equation to make it a bit easier to work with, as follows:
By construction, average Tied and All-5v5 Fenwick percentages are always 50%. All of my estimates are season-specific; that is, I didn’t use a single set of weights, but rather calculated average TOIs and league-average Fenwick-For percentages by score situation for each season.